Nova financijska kriza čeka iza ugla

Naslovnice izgledaju jezivo poznato: globalni rast posrće, dionice se srozavaju i profitne stope na obveznice perifernih zemalja vrtoglavo rastu. Dok se očekuje da krajem mjeseca Federalne Rezerve SAD-a uspore svoj program otkupa aktive, i dok izbijanje ebole i geopolitička nestabilnost zastrašuju investitore, svjetska tržišta vraćaju se u vrlo nestabilno stanje. „Tržišna patologija koju smo postupno upoznali tijekom krize 2008. vraća se“, pisao je nedavno Financial Times. Pitanje više nije hoće li biti nove krize, već gdje i kada će prvo udariti.

Sve se svodi na to da globalni finacijski slom 2008.-2009. i europska dužnička kriza 2010.-2012. nikada nisu u potpunosti riješeni. Nakon što su vlade isplatile ogromne svote za spašavanje sustava nakon sloma Wall Streeta, vodeće svjetske centralne banke jednostavno su prikrile preostale slabosti subvencioniranjem u osnovi propalih financijskih institucija u iznosima od bilijuna dolara, kupujući gomile toksične imovine i osiguravajući zajmove uz negativnu kamatnu stopu u nadi da će oživiti kreditni sustav i spasiti banke.

No umjesto rješavanja osnovnih problema strukturalne prezaduženosti, rekordne nezaposlenosti, neobuzdane nejednakosti i kako se čini beskrajne recesije, te su mjere samo dodatno pogoršale stvari. Kao prvo, stvorile su ogroman kreditni dug koji premašuje čak i onaj prethodni koji je gotovo potopio svjetsku ekonomiju 2008. Posljednji izvještaj Međunarodnog centra za monetarne i bankarske studije iznosi kako je ukupni svjetski dug – isključujući onaj financijskog sektora – porastao za 38% nakon kolapsa Lehman Brothersa, dosegnuvši tako novu povijesno visoku razinu. Prošle godine svjetski javni i privatni dug iznosio je 212% globalnog ekonomskog outputa, dok je 2008. iznosio 180%.

S ovim plimnim valom jeftinih kredita koji se prelijeva kroz svjetski financijski sustav, investitori su krenuli u potragu za najvišim profitnim stopama. Budući da su se američko tržište nekretnina i europsko tržište obveznica još uvijek oporavljali od posljednje krize, okrenuli su se trgovanju dionicama. Od sredine 2013. i sredine 2014. prosječni svjetski povrat na dionički kapital porastao je na enormnih 18 posto. Ekonomist s Yalea Robert Shiller pokazao je kako je „jaz između cijena dionica i korporativnih prihoda sada veći nego što je bio u prethodnim predkriznim periodima te da bi se tržišta vratila na normalne razine prihoda, prosječna svjetska tržišta dionica trebala bi pasti za oko 30%“.

U isto vrijeme, bilijuni dolara otišli su na nekretninska tržišta ekonomija u razvoju. U Brazilu su strana ulaganja u projekte urbane transformacije za Svjetsko nogometno prvenstvo i Olimpijske igre dovela do spekulativnog nekretninskog balona pri čemu su cijene stambenih nekretnina porasle za 80% između 2007. i 2013. U Turskoj je također obilan dotok stranih kredita potaknuo građevinski bum koji je dramatično transformirao urbani krajolik, uz nebodere, trgovačke centre i infrastrukturne megaprojekte koji niču po Istanbulu. U obje zemlje, rezultirajuća socijalna premještanja dovela su do kontinuiranih prosvjeda i društvenih nemira.

Međutim, majka svih kreditnih balona u tišini je rasla drugdje, u Kini gdje je vlada – u očajničkom pokušaju sprječavanja prelijevanja učinaka Velike Recesije – upumpala u ekonomiju kredite u vrijednosti preko 13 bilijuna dolara. To je stvorilo monstruozan neregulirani bankarski sustav u sjeni vrijedan 4.4 bilijuna dolara i nekretninski balon epskih proporcija koji je iza sebe ostavio gradove duhova koji se protežu diljem zemlje. Također je Kinu pretvorio u jednu od najzaduženijih zemalja u razvoju na svijetu, s nekontroliranim rastom ukupnog javnog i privatnog duga (izuzimajući financijske institucije) na 217% BDP-a prošle godine, s 147% BDP-a 2008.

Neregulirani bankarski sustav nije samo kineski problem. U SAD-u i Europi stvaranje duga sve više je produkt u bilancama  nezavedenog posuđivanja od strane ne-bankarskih financijskih institucija poput hedge fondova, osiguravajućih kompanija, privatnih fondova kapitala i brokera. Taj bankarski sustav u sjeni uglavnom je nereguliran što omogućuje zajmodavcima preuzimanje mnogo većeg rizika nego što bi to mogle obične banke. Iz tog je razloga MMF upozorio kako svjetski bankarski sustav u sjeni vrijedan 70 bilijuna dolara predstavlja veliku prijetnju globalnoj financijskoj stabilnosti. U Sjedinjenim Državama aktivnost bankarskog sustava u sjeni doseže iznose 2 i pol puta veće od onih u konvencionalnom bankarstvu.

U međuvremenu zabrinjavajući znakovi pojavljuju se u Europi gdje su četiri godine štednje zarobile najveću svjetsku ekonomiju u iscrpljujuću deflatornu spiralu. Čak se i Njemačka, ekonomski pokretač EU, vraća u recesiju, dok je Grčka ponovno u središtu oluje nakon što je prošlog tjedna grčko tržište dionica bilo u slobodnom padu. Grčkim obveznicama sada se trguje daleko iznad 7%-tne oznake koju se 2011. smatralo „točkom bez povratka“. Izgleda da su investitori zabrinuti zbog zdravlja grčkih banaka, rastuće popularnosti stranke SYRIZA suprotstavljene mjerama štednje te vladinih planova o ranijem izlasku iz programa europske financijske pomoći kako bi se zaustavio rast popularnosti SYRIZA-e na anketama.

Kada se na sve to pridoda geopolitička nestabilnost u Ukrajini i na Bliskom Istoku, situacija se čini zrelom za još jednu rundu tržišne panike. Prije ili kasnije jedan od balona će puknuti,  a posljedice neće biti lijepe. Ono što je ovoga puta drukčije jest to da je ukupna razina duga sada još veća i teže se s njom nositi nego što je to bilo 2008., dok su vlade - koje su već iskoristile većinu svojih fiskalnih i monetarnih mogućnosti tijekom proteklih šest godina - još manje sposobne za odgovarajuću reakciju. Još uvijek ne znamo kada ili gdje će sljedeća kriza udariti, no kada se to dogodi bit će velika. Ovoga puta moramo biti spremni.

Prijevod: Ilija Todorić

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